P17751: Vaccine Pricing Evaluation
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# Preliminary Detailed Design

## Team Vision for Preliminary Detailed Design Phase

• Understand most of the current code, research literature and focus of the project.
• Have a pseudo code of what we want/need to have.
• Meet with subject matter expert about suggestions and risks.

## Design and Flowcharts

public/Photo%20Gallery/FunctionalDecompNew.PNG

## Risk Assessment

public/Photo%20Gallery/NEWRISKS.PNG

## Prototyping

1. Segment the countries into many markets (ideally: each country is a market).

2. Create a 2^k Factorial Experiment, where k is the number of markets and 2 represents whether a market still has a budget or not.

3. Using the UNICEF data, extract a data set that reflects the budget uncertainty of a market.

• This may require building a predictive model to estimate a market's budget uncertainty.

4. Plot the data on a Cullen and Frey Graph to determine what theoretical continuous statistical distributions the data may come from.

• Example

public/Photo%20Gallery/Cullen%20and%20Frey.png

5. Fit promising distributions on the data using maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the parameters of the distributions.

6. Plot the fit and the data set together to graphically validate goodness of fit for each promising distribution.
• Example

public/Photo%20Gallery/Plot%20of%20Fittness.png

7. Compute the following goodness of fit metrics for each promising distribution.
• Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic
• Cramer-von Mises statistic
• Anderson-Darling statistic
• Aikake's Information Criterion
• Bayesian Information Criterion

8. If a promising distribution has enough evidence to suggest that the data set comes from that distribution, then begin simulating ABP results by randomly sampling from the promising distribution.

9. If a promising distribution fails to have enough evidence, then fit an empirical distribution on the data set and then begin simulating ABP results by randomly sampling from the empirical distribution.

## Plans for next phase

• Execute prototype design.
• Evaluate ABP results.
• Develop a Test Plan to test how well Engineering Requirements are met.
• Determine how to improve the prototype design.