P17751: Vaccine Pricing Evaluation
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Preliminary Detailed Design

Table of Contents

Team Vision for Preliminary Detailed Design Phase

Design and Flowcharts

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Risk Assessment

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Prototyping

1. Segment the countries into many markets (ideally: each country is a market).

2. Create a 2^k Factorial Experiment, where k is the number of markets and 2 represents whether a market still has a budget or not.

3. Using the UNICEF data, extract a data set that reflects the budget uncertainty of a market.

4. Plot the data on a Cullen and Frey Graph to determine what theoretical continuous statistical distributions the data may come from.

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5. Fit promising distributions on the data using maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the parameters of the distributions.

6. Plot the fit and the data set together to graphically validate goodness of fit for each promising distribution.
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7. Compute the following goodness of fit metrics for each promising distribution.

8. If a promising distribution has enough evidence to suggest that the data set comes from that distribution, then begin simulating ABP results by randomly sampling from the promising distribution.

9. If a promising distribution fails to have enough evidence, then fit an empirical distribution on the data set and then begin simulating ABP results by randomly sampling from the empirical distribution.

Plans for next phase


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